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Tulsa World (US), December 12, 2004 Book Details
How Depopulation of the World Could Change
Our Future If overpopulation is one of the things you fret about, you can cross it off your worry list. By the end of this century the number of people living on this planet will be falling steadily downward. Since 1950, the United Nations Population Division has been keeping tabs on every country in the world. Even though the total number of people has been rising since that time -- there are now about 8 billion of us living on earth -- a downward trend is already well underway in Japan and most European countries. The most critical measurement in population projections is called the "Total Fertility Rate." As Ben Wattenberg explains in "Fewer," the "TFR represents the average number of children born per woman over the course of her childbearing years. If the average woman in a country bears three children, the TFR for that country is 3.0. The TFR is the keystone calculation of demography, and I would argue that it is the single most important measurement of humankind." To maintain its population level, the TFR of any particular country must be 2.1. (The reason it's not an even 2.0 is that the death of infants and children who never reach their own age of reproduction is factored into the equation. So what is the present TFR of various nations around the world? Of the 44 countries in Europe, all but one -- Albania -- now have a replacement level below the maintenance level of 2.1. The same is true in Japan. "In the current time frame (2000-2005) the European TFR is estimated to be 1.38 children per woman. That number is 34 percent below the replacement level. Japanese rates are almost identical." In fact, 16 European countries have TFR rates even below 1.3. They include Spain (1.15), Austria (1.28), and Germany (1.35). What about the United States? How does the TFR in this country compare with that of Europe or Japan? At the mo ment, our birth figure is just slightly below the replacement level of 2.1. Back in the 1950s, during the Baby Boom, the U.S. rate was 3.8; it has been falling steadily since that time. Moreover, the rate is by no means the same throughout the country. The state with the smallest TFR is Vermont (1.6); the highest level is in Utah (2.54). Even though the overall TFR in the United States is slightly below the 2.1 replacement level, the population in this country robustly continues to grow. The reason, of course, is immigration. The number of legal immigrants coming to America each year exceeds the combined number of immigrants being admitted to all the other countries of the world. But the situation in these less developed nations is changing dramatically. Mexico provides a prime example. In the late 1950s the TFR in that country was 6.96. Now, however, it has dropped to, or possibly just below, the standard replacement level of 2.1. This sharp decline in the Mexican birthrate will undoubtedly have an impact on U.S. immigration. What factors are responsible for the on-going reduction in the number of children born to a typical woman? In his book, Ben Wattenberg devotes an entire chapter to this subject. He identifies 18 conditions that are causing the decline. The first he mentions is the movement of American families from the farm to the city. "On a farm, a child is often regarded as an extra worker to help in agricultural production. In an urban surrounding, a child is a cost, not a benefit." Perhaps the most significant factor prompting a change in the fertility rate has been "the education of women and the entry of women into the work force.. . . . In America in 1947, more than twice as many men went to college as did women. Today, more women go to college in America than do men." In addition to predicting a decline in world population, Wattenberg explores the effects this trend will produce. He points out, for example, that to flourish, business firms rely on a growing customer base; a population decline will lead to a drop-off in business growth. The environment will also be altered; fewer people will mean less pollution. One of the more significant results of the decline, in the United States, will be a threat to Social Security operation. "Fewer" is an extremely informative and provocative book. Howard Upton is a Tulsa writer. << Tulsa World -- 12/12/04 >> Home About Us Newsletters News Archives Donate
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