THE RELIGIOUS CONSULTATION
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NPR - Morning Edition (USA), October 11, 2004

Europe Population

STEVE INSKEEP, host:

This is MORNING EDITION from NPR News. I'm Steve Inskeep.

The world's population continues to grow. It's 6.5 billion now and at current rates will hit 9.3 billion by the middle of the century, but most of that growth will be in the poorest countries. In wealthier countries in Europe, birthrates are falling, leaving an aging population to deal with changes in the economy, political stability and security. NPR's Sylvia Poggioli reports from Italy which has one of the world's lowest fertility rates.

SYLVIA POGGIOLI reporting:

One of the most enduring stereotypes of Italy is the big Italian family, but that's an image of the past. Walking along an Italian city street, pregnant women and small children are a rare sight. It's more common to see elderly Italians assisted in their daily stroll by recently arrived immigrants from the Philippines or Bangladesh. In Italy, people over 65 far outnumber those under 15. Widespread access to higher education and increased affluence have radically changed Italian lifestyles. Many women no longer feel marriage and motherhood are their only goals in life. Nineteen-year-old Feverica(ph) is a first-year university student in art history.

FEVERICA: (Through Translator) Marriage is a long way down the road, that's for sure. And as for having a kid, I'll think about it after I finish my studies and after I've made a career for myself.

POGGIOLI: Her friend Flavia(ph), who's 18, studies Oriental languages.

FLAVIA: (Through Translator) I don't even know if I ever want to get married. If it happens, it will be in the very distant future.

POGGIOLI: It's estimated that by 2050, Italians will decline from the current 57.5 to 45 million. Demographers are puzzled by such a sharp drop in a predominantly Catholic country. The most frequently cited causes are a delayed transition to adulthood--most young men and women live at home until they're 30--the lack of child-care facilities and the absence, as in much of southern Europe, of state incentives to have bigger families. Demographer Francesco Billari, professor at Milan's Bocconi University, says governments are reluctant to impose policies that could be perceived as authoritarian.

Professor FRANCESCO BILLARI (Bocconi University): Because of the past policies of the fascist Italy or of the Spanish Franco regime always put a shadow on the policies of having big families.

POGGIOLI: There are also cultural factors. The feminist revolution in Italy came late but it was one of the most sweeping in Europe. Today, more women than men study at universities and nearly 50 percent of Italian women work. Litita Macanini(ph) is a professor of statistics at Florence University. She questioned more than 3,000 working mothers across Italy to find out what would persuade them to have more children.

Professor LITITA MACANINI (Florence University): And one image is women are unhappy after the first child, but in Italy still, there is not this egalitarian division of work, so they did expect at least some help from the father of their child.

POGGIOLI: Macanini's research showed that fewer than 6 percent of Italian husbands do household chores, which virtually ensures that Italian women freeze motherhood after one child. In contrast in northern Europe, where men are more accustomed to participating child rearing, birthrates are much higher than in Italy. Demographer Antonio Golini believes Italians could be an endangered species. He cites UN projections that in 2050 Italy will have a four million increase in people aged 80 and over and a decrease of 16 million people among those aged less than 80.

Professor ANTONIO GOLINI (Demographer): How can survive a population and a society and economy in this condition?

POGGIOLI: The Italian case is not unique. Populations are declining nearly everywhere in Europe except for France, which has always had strong pro-family policies. The biggest immediate impact of the graying of Europe will be on pensions and health costs. Today, there are 35 pensioners for every 100 workers. In 2050, pensioners are expected to surge to 75 for every 100 workers. Antonio Golini says this could lead to a generational struggle.

Prof. GOLINI: Young people very soon I suppose will realize that they have to pay for the pensions of the old people, but there will be very, very few people in next generations which will be able to pay for them. This is a very dark perspective.

POGGIOLI: The depopulation trend and the inevitable drop in productivity could also seriously undermine European aspirations to become a global superpower. According to a recent report by the French Institute of International Relations, the gross domestic product of the European Union will be growing by mid-century at just over 1 percent a year compared with more than 2 percent in North America. The report concluded that the European Union faces a slow but inexorable exit from history. Demographers say that large-scale immigration is an absolute necessity for Europe, but they stress that immigration will not be sufficient by itself to tackle the continent's depopulation. Professor Golini recommends a combination of measures.

Prof. GOLINI: A recover in fertility, immigration, much more women employed in the labor market. So we should arrive to age at retirement of perhaps 70.

POGGIOLI: But Europe is in a bind. Many governments are already facing outbreaks of labor unrest sparked by projected cuts in pensions and health benefits, and fear of immigrants has already strengthened right-wing and xenophobic parties throughout the continent. Sylvia Poggioli, NPR News, Rome.

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